All Over the World to Estimate China Overtook the American Time
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U.S. forecast: 2012
Council recently forecast that the U.S. economy, if the index based on purchasing power parity (PPP), China's fastest in 2012 may become the world's largest economy, due to lower prices in China. However, economists have different views on how to measure the index, China's GDP is now only 4 of the United States into a pretty, or to wait until the market exchange rates in U.S. dollars gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed the United States, regarded as the leading world economy .
Goldman Sachs predicted: 2027
Goldman Sachs in 2003 predicted that China will overtake the United States in 2041, is then changed to early 2027; the British Standard Chartered Bank in November predicted that China will overtake the United States in 2020. This partly reflects the impact of financial crisis, because the United States this year, real GDP in Q3 is still lower than in December 2007, China grew by 28% over the same period.
UK projections: the latest in 2022
Real GDP if the U.S. continues to have, respectively, over the past 10 years the average annual growth rate, which is China's 10.5% and 1.7% in the United States, while other conditions remain unchanged, then China's GDP in 2022 should surpass the United States.
However, in view of the ancient push this may not be accurate, wide mid-1980s, Japan will become the world's largest has been optimistic about the economy, the result is not. Moreover, with the working-age population started to shrink, and productivity growth slowdown, China's economic growth will be slowing down. In addition, the trend GDP in dollar terms, not only decided by the real economic growth, depends on inflation and the yuan against the U.S. dollar. Over the past 10 years, U.S. annual inflation rate was 3.8% and 2.2%; and from foreign exchange reform since 2005, the average annual appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar by 4.2%.
If the next 10 years, average annual economic growth of China and the U.S. were 7.75% and 2.5%, while inflation is 4%, respectively, and 1.5%, 3% annual appreciation of RMB, China will overtake the United States in 2019, the Executive become the leader of the world economy. If China's average annual real economic growth down to 5%, while other conditions remain unchanged, then China will be over by 2022 the United States to win. Of course, Americans will still be much richer than the Chinese, because of its per capita GDP will be 4 times more than Chinese people.
Singapore scholars: China-led "harmonious Asia"
National University of Singapore Mr Mahbubani, Dean of Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy recently said the Chinese government put forward a harmonious society in China's political philosophy, we now need a "harmonious Asia."
Mr Mahbubani is considered to be Singapore's Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew's first think tank, has served more than 30 years Minister for Foreign Affairs of Singapore. He said that the West is now disturbed by China's rise, it is no secret. Therefore, the West looking for the political alliance to contain China's rise. In Asia, you see the West in its efforts to maintain it and Japan, South Korea alliance. Now, India and Europe are often flirting with the Western way of thinking is: If there is a strong India, it can be used to balance China.
Mr Mahbubani said, we now need a "harmonious Asia." The Chinese will be "Harmonious Asia" played a leading role, because China is the most powerful nation in Asia, the most powerful countries need to establish and neighbors deal with the order. China needs a more creative and more active foreign policy, to create "a harmonious Asia." |
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2010-12-31 19:29:14 |
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