World Economy Recovery Uncertain Factors Still Larger
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Modest recovery in the global economy, the downside risk has eased. But generally the international market continues to recover G3 economies skepticism, mainly derived from several aspects.
First, the employment rate of increase and the economic recovery, there is inconsistency between the developed and emerging markets, there was separation of the economic recovery. Quantitative easing from developed countries and emerging market currencies shrink from the contrast, and become an important global market turmoil triggered one of the reasons.
Second, the financial markets and the inconsistency between the real economy. Financial markets can rely on large-scale currency to stimulate active. But if the new currency can not be successfully into the real economy, and has been running the financial system, then the real economy may take longer to recover, which is now the problems the U.S. economy.
Third, real growth in the global economy and the increasing trend before the crisis began to structural changes. After experiencing a global crisis, the potential growth rate will be down in the short term attempt to return to pre-crisis levels not realistic. Therefore, the real economic growth or will a new, lower equilibrium level stabilized, but that does not mean that the world is still in recession cycle.
Uncertainties are still large judgments, but also reveals the reality: Today, in developed and emerging markets are at different stages of the economic cycle. Developed anti-deflation emerging market anti-inflation. Developed countries and emerging market currencies quantitative easing will be the contraction of global monetary policy 2011, the basic direction of differentiation. This means that the United States, the euro area, emerging markets will show a different policy orientation.
U.S. economic recovery will be based on the entity level, and with reference to CPI levels, consumption rates, entrepreneurial activity and other indicators to determine its quantitative easing the implementation of the second process and the need for further quantitative easing. The euro zone will be based on the diffusion of the debt risk to financial repair and controllability, with emphasis on preventing debt crisis, and may be necessary to adopt the quantitative easing policy. China and other emerging markets will be awash in liquidity, low interest rates under the constraints of the international monetary environment of monetary contraction, to manage inflation, inhibit foam.
Reflects the global financial crisis, over-consumption model of development countries need to adjust the global economic recovery is also repeated that the world economy in depth increased the urgency of restructuring. From this perspective, 2011 and the future for a longer period of time, developed countries will gradually promote savings and expanding exports to support growth in the real economy, and through the recycling industry and manufacturing to maximize the return to correct the trade imbalance. Emerging market countries are due to increase consumption, increase imports in order to achieve internal and external macroeconomic balance.
The formulation of the central economic conference, "to expand the scale of imports, the macroeconomic balance and to play imports on the important role of economic restructuring." This means not only to expand the import key measures to achieve trade balance, it is to achieve internal macroeconomic balance, the key to economic restructuring.
The reason is that emerging markets including China, the trade imbalance is a result of the international economic imbalances and domestic savings and investment imbalance outward extension. In effect, therefore, appropriate to expand the import level can gradually correct the imbalance, but the key still in hand to correct the external imbalance of the international economy, while working from the inside to adjust the internal economic imbalances.
Crisis for the country like the United States, the trade imbalance is the essence of the performance of the internal economic structure is irrational, and only by households, businesses and financial institutions, governments and other balance sheet repair and improve the savings rate to correct the underlying imbalances . Thus, overall, global economic restructuring requires deep within the different economic adjustment. |
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Author Resource:-
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2010-12-30 17:32:04 |
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