Next Year Oil Prices Promising Rose to 100 dollar
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Recently released a report accusing him of a number of international oil prices could top $ 100 next year, because as the economy continues to recover, the global demand for oil will continue to increase. Oil prices 100 dollars per barrel higher than last time or in October 2008, when Lehman Brothers bankruptcy triggered commodity and stock markets fell sharply.
Last week, Goldman Sachs Commodity Outlook Report 2011, is expected before the second half of next year, crude oil prices will break through 100 U.S. dollars a barrel. The bank believes that the recovery of the crude oil market has entered a "second stage."
Goldman Sachs bullish oil prices is an important reason is that OPEC's spare capacity began to decline, OPEC accounted for 40% of the global supply of crude oil around important in the global market. Goldman Sachs said crude oil inventories as the global economic crisis from the regression of surplus state normalization, OPEC will be the market for some time to supply more oil, reducing idle capacity. In the December 11 meeting, OPEC said it would maintain the December 2008 set the output target unchanged.
Analysis of the library team, headed by Goldman Sachs, wrote in the report, as record high global crude oil demand to close, crude oil stock levels declined rapidly in recent months. Goldman Sachs expects global oil demand growth will remain strong momentum, an increase of 200 million barrels per day.
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch analyst, said last week, oil prices in 2011 may exceed 100 U.S. dollars a barrel mark. But the bank believes that higher oil prices in the price of 100 dollars or even more difficult to maintain a long time.
Bank of America - Merrill Lynch said the oil market has emerged tight fundamentals and structure. The bank believes that the recent oil demand grew faster than the supply situation will continue into 2011. According to the report of the bank, over the past two quarters, global oil demand growth to the fastest level since 2004, if such growth, demand in 2010 will hit a new high.
JP Morgan Chase in New York, head of oil research Eagles that next year, the spot price of oil may exceed 100 U.S. dollars a barrel mark. Market participants noted that crude oil futures traders and investment banks optimism for the price of oil, and 3 months ago In contrast, many people also believe that oil prices are unlikely to continue rising because demand is weak. But after a period of time, demand for crude oil seems to have been higher.
International Energy Agency recently predicted that global oil demand this year will grow by 230 million barrels, the second highest growth rate in recent years, only slightly lower than the surge in demand in 2004 of 300 million barrels per day increase. Published in the December 10 monthly report, the agency raised its crude oil demand is expected next year, said the main benefit from the growth in North America and China.
Consulting firm Wood Mackenzie analyst Osborne believes that the recent strong growth in demand for oil means that oil consumption will be in the third quarter of 8830 barrels per day, more than the end of 2007 reached 8800 million barrels of daily record.
Osborne believes that global oil demand has been restored to its peak before the financial crisis. If so, this more pessimistic than the market had expected a full year ahead. Analysts believe that demand for crude oil rebound not only from China and other emerging markets, the same is true in developed countries. For example, in September of this year, U.S. oil consumption is the highest since November 2004 the largest monthly increase since, increased consumption of 91.3 million barrels per day.
Specific predictions from the point of view, Goldman Sachs three-month U.S. WTI crude oil is expected to be $ 89 target, six-month target bit 100 dollars, 12-month target is raised to $ 105. Bank of America - Merrill Lynch forecasts that in 2011 the average WTI crude oil price will be $ 87, compared to 79 in 2010 dollars. |
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2010-12-20 13:29:04 |
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