QE2 to Emerging Markets Bring Impact and Influence
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The second round of the U.S. global quantitative easing policy (QE2) re-warming concerns. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently made to the media and respond to the latest position, triggering a new interpretation of the parties - that tended to be pessimistic side. We are more concerned about, QE2 uncertainty, the domestic capital market will once again what impact?
Fed-led QE2, first announced in early November this year. The Fed decision, by the end of June next year to buy 600 billion U.S. dollars before the long-term U.S. treasury bonds to help buy bonds to lower interest rates. Is intended to reduce interest rates to stimulate U.S. economic growth. Since the announcement of the scheme, it caused quite a lot of worldwide criticism.
After more than a month, in the face of public opinion continue to simmer, Bernanke once again the voice of public response to criticism. Meanwhile, he returned to bring you a new "stimulus": to put on a QE2 "uncertainty" of the hat, the scale is likely to exceed the previously announced 600 billion U.S. dollars. Public opinion have this "uncertainty" interpretation made tended to be pessimistic, even the media smell a QE3 taste. Soon, the U.S. dollar, gold and foreign exchange markets have made a series of reactions.
Deeply moved by the global financial markets nervous QE2, how it will affect the domestic capital market? Response to the financial crisis in 2008 jointly launched a liberal policy, bringing together the global capital markets, the attraction will reproduce the carnival? Liquidity has been too self-sufficient economy of China, the face of a simmering international liquidity, and how safely the flood season? Have become parties to this concern and research. Even the country, including funds and other institutional investors in the coming year in anticipation of A-share market investment strategies word must mention QE2, the incident became a seasonal phenomenon of the investment community.
In fact, QE2 uncertainty, it is neutral and objective terms, the end result may be worse and better, depending on economic trends unknown. For now, to be overly pessimistic and optimistic anticipation, and then make the appropriate adjustment of policies or strategies, are at greater risk. According to public reports, Bernanke's core meaning is "quantitative easing policy is not static": "We will be regularly assessed and will continue to consider whether it needs to change, the need to increase, decrease or adjust" the number of bonds purchased.
First, emerging markets are facing huge liquidity input pressure, coupled with rising imported inflation, the real economy will be affected. Which, in the expectation of RMB appreciation, the domestic economy and the market will bear the brunt. "Anti-inflation" has become the current and coming period the primary objective of domestic economic policy, which is facing real economic growth requires the premise.
Second, the emerging markets to return policy orientation and the actual uncertainty of potential risks arising can not be ignored. Only from the monetary policy point of view, this market funds face with the most directly affected. Since the second half, the developed economies and emerging economies, macroeconomic policy to the emergence of a "split" phenomenon, now reveal the growing trend. For United States and Japan to maintain loose even more relaxed, India and other countries are gradually further and further away, set foot on the long journey of farewell loose. Emerging market funds in the pool, while in the water, while the pumping, the result remains to be seen.
Third, emerging market investors are expected to change again, investment style and rhythm of the market will be disrupted. In view of the emerging economies and developed economies, the fact that macro-policy split that passive changes from outside influence, is clearly not conducive to the emerging markets themselves. When investors began to look forward to emerging markets is similar to a liberal global capital markets bring together carnival attraction, it should be on the liquidity of asset bubble was sufficient vigilance. |
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Author Resource:-
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2010-12-16 04:28:00 |
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