Asian Countries Economy to Undraw Growth Gap
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Big expansion in China and India, while Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore is a small country dependent on exports by the weak growth in Europe and the U.S. economy dragged down.
Recently published data show that China in November's purchasing managers index continues to rise. Barclays Capital economist said: "The relevant index showed continued strong growth in domestic demand."
Economists expect China's economic growth this year will reach 10%. Barclays Capital, expects China's GDP in the third quarter after 9.6% growth in the fourth quarter growth of 9.3%. The company also expects to reduce the economic stimulus measures, China's economic growth in 2011 will decline slightly to 9%.
India's economy has maintained rapid growth. The third quarter of this year, India's economy grew 8.9%. Asia's third-largest economy last quarter, also made a similar success, those optimistic that India is now 9% economic growth rate is possible. The data processing industry released yesterday supports this expectation. Sufficient orders, production bottlenecks have emerged. Indians optimistic about the future, a corresponding increase in private consumption, making the economy withstand the crisis in the export market. October car sales hit a new high.
India's economy is the biggest risk facing their own obstacles own development. But so far, even the most sensational scandals in the telecom and banking industries and almost did not weaken the enthusiasm of investors. Although foreign capital inflows has decreased, but financial experts believe that this is only short-term phenomenon. Of the most concern is the high inflation rate. Although interest rates six times this year already, but so far inflation has not slowed. So analysts expect the central bank of India in early 2011 will again raise interest rates.
More worried about the heavy dependence on exports of Southeast Asia. They first half of the impressive economic growth, but now is in the back, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines gross domestic product in the third quarter and second quarter year on year or even declined. This once again shows they are on the U.S., Europe and Japan strongly dependent on economic conditions. Credit Suisse economist commented that the count is too important to overseas markets in Southeast Asia's economic recovery, they accumulated a large inventory. Now they have to slow down production to reduce inventory.
In addition, many Southeast Asian countries also suffered the pain of high inflation. The loose monetary policy, they face or the increase of interest dilemma. Although economic growth data is very bad, or out of Thailand, expected to choose the latter, this way, the currency will appreciate, exports will be further suppressed. However, export-oriented Asian countries did not exist the danger of a new round of crisis. Because the good momentum of development in private consumption, which partly offset the impact of declining exports. Just because strong economic growth in the first half of their annual average growth can reach to Europe and the United States can only dream level. |
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2010-12-11 10:16:20 |
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