Market Forecast on Six Central Banks Will Press Soldier Motionless
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Six central banks will announce this week the latest global interest rate decision, due to the recent release of the generally poor economic data, market expectations of Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and other countries central banks will not do anything, the United Kingdom, Canada and Brazil the central bank will also be inaction. Coupled with the European Central Bank announced last week to keep rates unchanged level of 1%, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did not rule out the third round stand the possibility of quantitative easing, global access to stimulate the economy to raise interest rates for the first caution period.
Reserve Bank of Australia will lead the charge this week, announced interest rate decision on September 7, the bank early November surprise rate hike by 25 basis points to 4.75%, but last week's third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) showed growth cooling, and 10 Retail sales unexpectedly decline, coupled with its central bank president, Stevens said recently that the current level of interest rates appropriate, suggesting interest rates may stay the pace. After the Dow Jones News Service survey economists forecast in Australia, at least until next year before raising interest rates again.
Bank of Canada will announce interest rate decision later in 7 days, the Dow Jones News Service forecast, the bank policy meeting last year, the resolution will keep rates at 1%. Carney, president of the country's central bank in a recent public statement, said household debt levels are steadily rising, suggesting that low interest rates to lure people to increase loans, and the large gap between U.S. interest rates negative for Canada, is also a slowdown in global economic growth major concern, so this meeting is bound to have some heated debate officials.
The 8th Brazilian central bank will also debut, as the bank last week raised the deposit reserve ratio breath 5 percentage points, to curb the rapid expansion of consumer credit, the market determine the rate hike this month so chances are greatly reduced. Brazil's increase in price pressures in recent months, the 12-month inflation rate accelerated to 5.5%. However, interest rates rose arrived in Brazil is 10.75%, among the highest in the world, and will be the new president inaugurated the new year, Rosoff, four-year term commitment will be reduced borrowing costs, after a price adjustment should the actual interest rates from the current 5.25% big Kandao 2%. FG V Projetos competent advisory body, said Edda, and now the whole atmosphere of monetary policy, "completely changed", the Brazilian government is expected to cut interest rates early next year may, instead of raising interest rates.
New Zealand, South Korea and also selected the Bank of England interest rate decision announced at the 9, the rate hike is considered slim chance of the current order of the three interest rate is 3%, 2.5% and 0.5%. New Zealand is the main cause of inflation is expected downturn, the survey shows the average expected future inflation in the country will be only 2.86%. Reuters forecast the Bank of New Zealand to the second quarter of 2011 was likely to raise interest rates. South Korea in November after three months in the pause announced a 25 basis point rate hike, but last week's October industrial production unexpectedly fell in March even, with inter-Korean won exchange rate shocks lead to tension, will make the Bank of Korea This month stay put.
European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged after the announcement, also released a more relaxed signal before March next year to continue to provide financial institutions with no limit on the loans in March, will continue to acquire euro zone government bonds. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is a rare occasion in the third round of the position does not rule out the possibility of quantitative easing, the major developed economies are currently no signs of tightening monetary policy, raising interest rates soon hopeless.
In contrast to China, the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau held 3 meetings a clear monetary policy from "moderately easy" to "stable" after the recent rate hike is expected to increase, and a variety of control measures and policy tools will be shared. Monetary Policy Committee Daokui Li said the Chinese monetary policy from "moderately easy" to "stable" after, should be gradually raising interest rates slowly, but monetary policy changes will not happen overnight.
Although the new trends in monetary policy, China's foreign exchange policy does not directly affected, but the appreciation of the renminbi to reduce the actual cost of imports, thus helping to ease inflation. |
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2010-12-11 04:18:08 |
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