Next Year World Economy Major Risk Still in the Developed Countries
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United Nations Economic and Social Affairs recently released "2011 World Economic Situation and Prospects," the report said world economic growth in 2011 will continue to decline. The long road to economic recovery, the world turns, the developed countries in 2011 will continue to drag on the global economic recovery, while the developing countries will remain the driving force of world economic growth.
The report predicts that by 2011 the world economy will grow 3.1%, compared to 3.6% in 2010 down. U.S. economic growth this year of 2.6% in 2011, moderated to 2.2%. Europe and slower economic growth in Japan is expected to be increased by 1.3% and 1%.
Major structural problems faced by the developed countries, such as the adjustment of bank assets and liabilities, financial sector integration, structural unemployment and structural public debt, would require market for a long time to repair itself. Low growth, high unemployment is likely to be developed in the coming years have to face reality.
Developing countries and countries with economies in transition, especially in some emerging economies than developed countries in their efforts to the strong economic recovery. For developing countries, the financial crisis is a major external shocks, once these countries have taken the appropriate stimulus, it could slow the external shocks, the economy can return to their original high-growth track.
The report shows that developing countries will continue next year to promote world economic growth, but by the gradual tightening of domestic macroeconomic policies and weak recovery of the major developed countries, the growth rate will slow down, whole, world economic growth in 2011 continued to decline, while growth in developed and developing countries will continue to exist imbalance.
Sovereign debt crisis of the developed countries is a growing threat to current and future years, the world's economic stability and growth in one of the main risks. 2011, the average debt level of developed countries, the ratio of GDP, more than 100%. Although many of these countries have announced plans to reduce fiscal deficits, but the timely implementation of these plans are effective, the remaining large uncertainties.
Another risk is the U.S. dollar, euro and yen and other major currencies, exchange rate fluctuations between the emerging economies directly affect the currency exchange rate. At the same time, the substantial capital flows to emerging economies, upward pressure on its currency rise. For example, the Brazilian currency, the real of the real exchange rate in 2010 increased by 20%. Exchange rate volatility to the investment and trade has brought great uncertainty is not conducive to economic recovery. Emerging economies, a sharp currency appreciation in the short term even in these countries is not conducive to macroeconomic and financial stability.
"Rely on 'competitive' currency devaluation to stimulate domestic economic growth is very dangerous, the result is likely to be plunged into a new round of global economic recession, the pace of recovery in the face of different national and international policy coordination is no longer the goal is to emphasize national In terms of policy objectives and unity of effort, but the economic situation in each country to develop their own policies under the premise of national policies to minimize the possible negative "spillover" effect. and the current basic goal is to prevent competitive devaluation and the International trade protectionism.
Slow economic recovery in major developed countries, not much room for domestic policy, they are likely to be in the promotion of international policy coordination and rebalancing the global economy, while emerging economies is forcing countries to make certain sacrifices the economic recovery.
In the global economy is facing the threat of financial crisis, the international policy coordination is very important. After the crisis, the economic recovery is more dependent on the domestic policies and domestic economic structure.
States can avoid the expense of others as long as the policy is the greatest success of international policy coordination. The pursuit of a 'global planned economy' model of international policy coordination options to solve the financial crisis in the latter countries face many complex issues of a different nature is unrealistic. |
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Author Resource:-
Chris Holigan a professianl writer from , it provides the high quality products, such as China others, cut to length line Manufacturer, forming machine
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2010-12-10 12:17:06 |
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