Do Not Exaggerate China's Economic Weight
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Recently, the Australian Queensland town of Alpha, a "big news", according to a local exploration company employees to say, this town of only 400 residents in the next few years, will be five times the scale. As a local company and the China Metallurgical Group (Metallurgical Corporation of China) (a mining and metals in China has an important role in the field of state-owned enterprises) has signed a sum of 73 billion investment project designed to build Australia's largest mine and 490 km length of railway, and ultimately transported to the coastal areas of coal to meet China's endless thirst for resources.
The growing influence of China
World coal research data show that in 2009 China's coal consumption accounted for 46% of the total global consumption, while the same share of world consumption of aluminum and zinc, while the consumption of crude steel is the European Union, the United States and Japan twice the amount. China's first capital, according to statistics, last year China's demand for the car over the United States, the demand for mobile phones in China this year will exceed the sum of other countries in the world.
Data from the third quarter of 2010 show that China's economic growth rate of 9.6%, which was showing a slowdown in the trend. IMF says world economic growth in China's economic growth accounted for almost 1 / 5, while China's purchasing power of total world purchasing power of 1 / 4.
In the 25 years before the rise of China, the only low-end products from the enterprise to see the influence of China, and recently, China has highlighted the influence of high-end products. For example, the German luxury car manufacturer Audi in the first quarter of this year, China has sold more than Germany. Meanwhile, construction of industrial enterprises Komatsu's largest coal plant from China signed a 44 large dump truck orders.
"Economist" build a "Chinese dependency index", a collection of 22 high proportion of revenues from China, the S & P 500 constituent stocks of the file. The index is based on market value of each corresponding to their respective companies rely on China to adjust the relative weight of revenue. The companies, including chip maker Intel and Qualcomm, with KFC and other restaurant chain Yum Brands, aircraft manufacturer Boeing Company and the glass maker Corning.
The results show that the calculated "China's dependency ratio" in 2009 than the S & P 500 rose about 10%, China's economic growth rate was just 11 percentage points higher than the U.S.. In April of this year, when the Chinese government began to control the real estate bubble, "China's dependency ratio," and Standard & Poor's 500 index rose and converged.
U.S. exports to China does not seem
In fact, China is the world's largest economy and most easily profit economy, and this year China's economic contribution to the world economy will be considerable. However, there is a key issue is that the Chinese economy can promote the common practice of other national economic growth.
Today, China has become the world's largest export market in many countries. For example, the share of Brazilian exports to China accounted for 12.5% of Brazil's total exports, while in South Africa, Japan and Australia, this share was 10.3%, 18.9% and 21.8%.
But exports of gross domestic product is only a part of, in most economies, domestic consumption is more important. This basis, China's product exports to Australia for the Australian contribution to gross domestic product was only 3.4%, while in Japan, South Africa and Brazil, which exports account for its share of GDP were 2.2%, 2% and 1.2 %.
Of course, the export earnings can really have a ripple effect on the economy. In the town of Alpha, the prospects for coal exports to China are driving the mining and railway industries. However, they generate out of the amplification effect, perhaps only 1.5 or 2. In other words, they are for the town's contribution to GDP of no more than twice as much.
More importantly, as growing exports, rapidly growing import demand will offset part of the export contribution to GDP. From 2001 to 2008, most of the countries outside East Asia than with China have a serious trade imbalance of trade with China is not a positive contribution. |
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2010-11-11 22:34:03 |
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