Facing the World New Loose Monetary Policy Tremendous Pressure
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Is it necessary to introduce quantitative easing policy, the question is haunting the global economy. Developed countries such as Japan and Europe have launched a new loose monetary policy, which will likely bring some to the global economic recovery, stimulating effect, but may also lead to a new global economic and financial risks.
The need to prevent the continuing policy of quantitative easing would be forthcoming G20 Summit in Seoul, one can not bypass the hot topic. Because the quantitative easing policy has been launched in Japan, the United States will soon implement this highly provocative policy of other central banks will follow the race in order to avoid currency appreciation and the tightening of monetary policy? Especially if a global policy to stimulate the formation of a new wave, will influence how the world economy? This issue is worth our consideration and analysis.
First of all, the reason why developed countries would start "quantitative easing" policy, mainly because those countries are faced with the plight of the current economic recovery, the response had to take a policy.
Looking at the situation from Japan, in addition to the continued appreciation of the yen ease pressure on the Bank of Japan ahead of the Fed before the introduction of this policy is difficult to pick up mainly the Japanese economy to increase stimulus intensity, such as this year's August CPI fell 1.0% that the current Japanese economy is still in deflation being. This is also overweight in Japan one of the reasons of economic stimulus.
In contrast, the U.S. situation is more complex and more compelling. This is because in recent months, the U.S. unemployment rate has remained at a high of 9.6%, the August core CPI rose 0.1%, only one step away from the zero growth. In addition, the September non-farm payrolls data are weaker than market expectations. Accordingly, the recent IMF U.S. economic growth this year from 2.9% to 2.2%. The Fed continued to pass this information to the market - will once again be the quantitative easing policy. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke also warned that should not be hastily turned to fiscal austerity policy, which is not conducive to the implementation of easy monetary policy.
Thus, whether Japan or the United States, the introduction of quantitative easing policy, the main purpose is to increase the strength of the recovery to stimulate their economies in order to give new impetus to economic growth.
Secondly, the current part of the developed countries, the introduction of these loose monetary policy to stimulate and promote the valuable process of global economic recovery, also has a certain importance.
On the one hand, given the U.S. economic recovery on the importance of the current global economic recovery, by enhancing the stimulus intensity to maintain the U.S. economic recovery has some "global" strategic significance. Because, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research's latest research results, the United States since the Great Depression had just ended the longest economic recession. From this perspective, to maintain the U.S. economic recovery is related to the United States can truly "get out" of the recession and the global economy can truly enter into the full recovery process of the event.
On the other hand, Japan and the United States to adopt a new policy of quantitative easing, it will be driven directly or indirectly stimulate other parts of Europe or the economic recovery. This is because, despite the slow pace of economic recovery in Europe, the European Central Bank did not take a more aggressive monetary easing. Data show the euro zone this year, three-quarter prices declined slightly this year, the EU's economic growth is expected to be 1.8%. At the same time, the Bank of England also left its benchmark interest rate unchanged today, but also that it would take to buy bonds, loose monetary policy measures. In addition, Canada, New Zealand and other developed countries may also pause the pace. As a result, a new stimulus to the recovery of the developed countries to promote economic growth uncoordinated significant meaning.
However, we should be clear that the new loose monetary policy there are significant risks and problems. This is because of this loose monetary policy will lead to depreciation of the dollar, has long been rampant expansion of global monetary liquidity. In 2007, legacy of loose monetary policy implementation of the massive flows from the stage of the case yet, the dollar devaluation and depreciation of U.S. dollar assets will attract more funds into commodities, causing a new round of commodity prices rally on the global economy recovery will also constitute a significant negative impact.
In addition, the new loose monetary policy will lead to a global scale "rate war" and threaten global economic recovery. Recently, the Brazilian finance minister publicly assert that the war has begun in a currency, IMF's Strauss-Kahn has also expressed concern about "a currency war" possibilities. |
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Author Resource:-
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2010-11-05 11:41:08 |
Article From Article Mayhem
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