Japan's Economy is Mired in Long-term Decline
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At present, Japan's domestic economic problems in waves, the Japanese economy continued to show signs of decline. Japan's GDP has increased from 20 years ago, the U.S. accounted for 75% to 36% now. Overall, population aging and low birth rate problem leads to decline in labor supply in Japan, will fundamentally affect Japan's economic growth; by the rapid rise of technology diffusion and impact of emerging markets, Japan's technical superiority and product competitive advantage in the decline; land area is small, a heavy financial burden and the low interest-rate policy has long restricted the implementation of the Japanese Government to stimulate the economy, space and intensity; appreciation of the yen makes this worse is not optimistic about the Japanese economy, the government's economic structural reform is very difficult. The basis of our economic growth from Japan, policy and structural reforms in three areas used to judge the Japanese economy has plunged into the long-term relative decline is inevitable, the sun is constantly set for.
First, the erosion of Japan's economic development factors, economic growth increasingly sluggish. Japan's aging society since 1994 has been faced with an aging population and low birth rate, the double threat. 2009, 127 million Japanese, 21% of population over 65 years of age, the proportion is expected to rise in 2050 to 40%. In 2005 the first negative growth in the Japanese population, the birth rate of only 1.25. Aging of the population not only increased the burden on the Japanese economy, but also reduces the labor supply in Japan, potential output decreased. Japan is an export-oriented economy to trade and technology statehood, but the two foundation is gradually being eroded. 80s of last century the Japanese began industrial transfer, gradually manufacturing to low labor costs in China and Southeast Asia, the transfer to become the East Asian economic development model of the leading pack Goose. Transfer of industry led to the hollowing out of Japan highlights the domestic industry, import growth than export growth, trade surplus showed a narrowing trend. Was calculated from 1991 to 2009 Japan imported an average 5.65% growth rate, annual average export growth rate of 4.21%, 1.44 percentage points higher than imports. Industry transfer of technology diffusion caused East Asian countries and Japan to narrow the gap between the technology, the competitive advantage of Japanese products was relatively impaired. Moreover, the long-term appreciation of the yen has also accelerated the pace of Japanese industry to move overseas. In addition, the financial crisis, the overall global economic recession, lack of good investment opportunities, global capital gains rate. Japanese Government and people of overseas assets held by reducing lead Japan's national income and wealth decline.
Second, the use of fiscal policy in Japan restricted space, the use of government investment to stimulate the economy means lost. Japan's small land area, the investment is limited, limiting the Japanese government to invest in measures to stimulate economic growth. In addition, as Japan's population aging intensifies, social burden and government fiscal burden. Heavy financial burden on limited government fiscal stimulus efforts, the Japanese government tried to increase public investment to stimulate the economy appeared to be inadequate.
Third, interest rate policy failure. Economic bubble burst, the Japanese take a relaxed monetary policy to stimulate the economy, the long-term interest rates remained at very low levels. But the fact that low interest rates did not help Japan get rid of the mire of economic recession. Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate remained at 0.1% of the long-term low has announced the recent 0.1% interest rate lowered from 0-0.1% range. Shows the implementation of interest rate policy has very narrow space, to expect to achieve recovery by lowering interest rates, little hope. In addition, low interest rates in Japan to promote the flow of domestic funds, a large number of fast economic growth, high return on investment in overseas markets, resulting in lack of domestic investment.
Fourth, short-term appreciation of the yen is difficult to solve the problem, the Japanese economic recession intensified. Since May this year, nearly 4 months since the period of time, the rapid gains in the yen against the dollar, has appreciated more than 10%. Japan would have expected to stimulate the economy through currency depreciation, but for the present situation, trends in the short term appreciation of the yen is difficult to contain. Yen exchange rate movements influenced by the dollar. Failure in the ultra-low interest rate policy, States have caught the exchange rate that the root "straw", are trying to use export-led economic growth. Because Japan's trade surplus with the United States remains large, the Japanese want to repeat once again intervene in the 1995 Japan-US joint appreciation of the yen is very difficult. The country's appreciation of the yen will have a huge negative impact on the economy, making the Japanese economy has not optimistic about the worse. Private organization in Japan Nomura Securities Financial & Economic Research report released by 1 the number of yen per U.S. dollar reduced by 1 yen, Japan's leading export enterprises 400 profit for fiscal 2010 decreased by 0.5%. In addition, the Japanese yen will further promote the domestic industry to low cost markets such as China and Southeast Asia, the transfer to resolve the appreciation of the yen rising production costs caused by the problem, Japan has the technology will spread further. |
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2010-11-01 00:34:42 |
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