RMB exchange rate rise huge
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Comprehensive of our recent research, we can see the renminbi appreciation factor restricting exports rapid growth has disappeared, formed the yuan appreciation requirement and input type inflation intensifies also need appreciation to hedge.
Therefore, faster RMB appreciation may become the next stage policy choice in the important considerations, amplitude is likely much more than expected, we raised annual appreciation forecast to 7% to 8%.
Restrict appreciation factor to eliminate
Comprehensive of our recent research situation look, speed up RMB appreciation may become the next stage policy choice in the important considerations, amplitude is likely much more than expected, we raised annual appreciation forecast to 7% to 8%.
The above judgment because: 1, regulatory layer might have thought the next stage input type inflation will become the key, appreciating inflation evolution can be directly alleviate the problem, quarter import prices rose by 14.2%, appear accelerate trend; 2, jiangsu area with high export orders full eliminated electrical load revaluation of the worries, through to a certain degree rise high inhibiting export growth, inhibiting export department and domestic demand for power, coal resources department, will is advisable; 3, appreciation public opinion environment, such as the central bank is forming first mention currency disinflationary, the labor department said letter of inflationary pressures increase input, and earlier time xinhua forwarding wen articles for deteriorating terms of trade concerns could also be a related directly, because appreciation foreshadowing the torsional worsening terms of trade.
Export over-rapid growth requirements appreciation
Only from domestic consider, yuan appreciation has been is needed to do the right thing, the only concern is that impact export growth. Currently, zhejiang coastal areas in export orders overload, power consumption, showing the full demand growth in export department has high needed to contain state. From the Angle of economic equilibrium, by speeding revaluation, certain degree inhibiting export over-rapid growth, restrain "export department and domestic demand for domestic coal department african-planned resource" become advisability lift.
2, 3 months zhejiang, jiangsu, fujian generating capacity, up 19% respectively 22%, 28%, systematic higher than the national 14% of the level, the jiangsu and zhejiang provinces area power use hours to rapidly promote parts of corresponding, start wrong peak orderly electricity, this proof the spring festivel, export department influx has too fast, to start with the domestic demand for power, coal and other department of public basic resources. It not only for many microscopic reports the national development and reform commission recently mentioned the preparation for the 2011 power operation adjustment notice, "about cogent safeguard electricity coal supply, stable electric coal prices for urgent notice" is a kind of relevant situation Tuesday.
Appreciation restrain exports from marginal, why both occur at the same time? This is largely because, exports are more fundamentally the growth of the world economy, global economic expansion effect of promoting China's export growth, finally together impel the revaluation, thus, from the time of occurrence, we see an export growth accelerated occur simultaneously with appreciation, exports in 2007, the yuan rise 6.1% 25.6% increases; The 2008 export increase 17.5%, the yuan rise 6.1%; 2009 annual export sharp slowdown, the RMB appreciation; stop In June 2010, exports after confirm resuscitation, appreciation to restart.
In fact, if no appreciation, we can see some of the approximately faster export growth, therefore, restrain exports export marginal occur simultaneously, and export appreciation is not contradictory. Export growth has happened is an important basis of future accelerate appreciation, and export department beyond the rapid increase of the economic load proposed directly revaluation of the requirements.
Input type to rise higher inflation hedge
In year-on-year growth in the first quarter to import prices, the Numbers were 14.2% last three or four quarters for 10.9%, 9.8 per cent respectively. The next stage, input type inflation will replace the rent, labor, short distance transportation fresh foods, such as the international trade product inflation, become the key to the overall inflation evolution appreciation was directly and effectively, the hedge measures. Especially, the products in international, China's currency beyond price, fiscal policy is more difficult, only accelerate exert effective influence in a certain extent revaluation of the yuan price. Inhibition products The above relations exist in history is clear evidence of validation, 2007, 2008 import price index also is increasing rapidly, thus forming a two years of RMB appreciation are 6.1%; Look from monthly data in 2007, after the second quarter accelerated, import prices of appreciation of RMB monthly accelerated, cause accordingly in the second half of 2007 and early 2008 as the appreciation during an annual, namely although two years 9.8 per cent rise 6.1%, but appear all over a period of time the phenomenon of centralized appreciation.
Based on the above reasons, and recently observed regulatory layer of trepidation about currency issue, we think, accelerate appreciation public opinion environment, and the entity economy requirements are forming, upward annual appreciation forecast to 7% to 8%.
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Author Resource:-
xia zihui a professianl writer from http://www.sandhogtool.com , China Indexable Milling Cutters, China Grooving Tool, External Turning Tool,
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2011-04-23 15:46:12 |
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