Japan will sink to second-rate countries after earthquake
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Japan's economic problems like two neighbors, one is older are very rich old lady. Another is a little figure robust but poor boy thirty. One day because of the rain poured, old lady wall neighbor after we say now boy might have what opportunity for old lady, what influence. But in fact this guy neighbor to catch up with the old lady's living standard is far worse.
Economists debate between, you see more fiercely, but the final result head often 80% are the same.
First, in the short term for the Japanese economy, the impact of the earthquake is relatively large. Many organizations in the world now estimates that our department himself a evaluation, optimistic say the possible loss 1% of GDP. Neutral point of 4 to 5 percent. Pessimistic said 10%, 20%. In the short run the impact of the Japanese economy is indeed. Especially for its agriculture, including its high-end manufacturing export products, equipment, auto, chip etc industries have more influence. In the long term, the future 35 years perspective, Japan would not become a middle-income country, but it might again became a second-rate countries. After the collapse of the Soviet union, economic globalization and then realized again the rise of China.
For the global economy, I think short-term have little impact, but overall impact. Because Japan is a export-driven economies. Although it in east Asia economic model is a so-called inside the YanZhen mode goose, but it replaced possibility a lot. For example it steel and China, Germany inheritance is can each be replaced. So I think on global economic impact also not too big. Was so judgment.
And one reason, even if the Japanese economy can revival, that's all. Now it is difficult to find a new economic growth point, political hardly have big breakthrough. From the international market performance can also see that in the international market after the earthquake hit, euramerican market first in Chinese stock market tumbled, then appeared to rebound. International commodity, especially in Japan imports larger commodity petroleum, coal, first to fall because think Japan demand down, but then began to rebound. From the international market performance, seem to be the economic impact of the earthquake in Japan is not very care this thing. But to the earthquake caused by the Japanese people's major trauma, we will still in line with international humanitarian spirit, the aid of aid, the sympathy of sympathy. From the economic speaking, international market performance think Japan is earthquake to economic impact. Of course on east Asian economies will have certain impact of east Asian production network, with Japanese as the leading role. Related parts manufacturing, production, relevant industry could be affected by some influence. But this could be very soon resumed.
The third point, Japan can appear after the earthquake in accordance with the broken window theory, the postwar economic boom appear, my personal opinion is not so sure. Because we've done assessment, in recent years some major natural disaster, the Indonesian tsunami, wenchuan earthquake, Japan hanshin earthquake after the economic performance in these countries, we find that these countries GDP quarter growth is not uniform. Cannot explain the post-disaster reconstruction must be able to boost the economy. Japan post-disaster reconstruction can boost the economy also play a question mark.
The post-disaster reconstruction can boost the economy depends on several conditions, first, here the country's inflation, basic economic situation. Second, its economic policy can move STH leeway. From now to see, the Japanese economy remember when I was young says lost years, say it now begins to lose for twenty years. It has been in the process of deflation. |
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2011-04-21 12:51:25 |
Article From Article Mayhem
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