China unicom will welcomed the explosive growth of 3G
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Three Chinese telecommunication enterprise in annual reports, we update released after the industry and corporate model, make the following adjustment: raised mobile and fixed-line broadband business long-term industry permeability; Think China unicom and China telecom will get more from China mobile market share; the hand The 2011 and 2012 RMB appreciation of Hong Kong dollar respectively by 5%.
Raised industry permeability hypothesis
And other countries than in mobile phone and broadband penetration, we think China in the next 5 | 10 years still has a large space, promote the growth of forces include: continues the urbanization; Continuously improve consumer spending; User consumption behavior continued turning to the Internet, especially mobile Internet. Mobile phone and broadband will still be the industry's two big growth momentum, China unicom and China telecom will be the beneficiaries.
3G explosive growth
By the end of 2010, three telecom enterprise report 8.42 million cell phone users, total equivalent of 64% of permeability. We think in China have 20% | 30% of users hold two pieces of above SIM card, so only effective permeability is expected to 45% | 50%, below the above nominal penetration. We further estimate the effective permeability of rural areas for only 20% | 30%, far below the 70% | 80% in urban areas. We will 2015 and 2020 estimate the number of mobile users respectively from the 14.7 billion and 123,000 before raised to 14 billion and billion 18 billion. Therefore, 2015 and 2020 respectively from the permeability of estimates before 101% 104% rose to 89 and with 127.
Workers believe department figures show that by the end of 2010, broadband amounted to 126 million, equivalent to 32% family penetration. We believe, in under pressure from the government, China telecom and China unicom's optical broadband upgrade planning very radical, so China's broadband growth will increasingly acceleration. In addition to mobile phone business, we think broadband should be another industry growing push. We will therefore 2015 and 2020 estimate the number of broadband subscribers from previous $186 million and 226 million 2.66 billion respectively, rise to inflated, and the same with family permeability billion estimated from 45% and 52 before and 88% to 65 percent respectively. It is worth noting, about 20% of the broadband users is the enterprise users, so the actual family permeability by 2015, is expected to 52% for 70 percent by 2020.
3G service forecast hike
We think mobile Internet in China's rapid growth mainly by the following factors, promoting: consumer behavior change; Smartphone depreciate; Micro bo applications. We will 2015 3G users estimates the number from 3.8 billion before 5.18 billion, raised to 3G users by 2015 the proportion in total subscribers from 31% estimate to 37%. The 2011 to 2015 3G net annual estimate the number of users from previous 67 million rise to 94 million.
Market share to unicom and telecom
China market comparison is unique, the dominant operator China mobile beset by TD technology for inferiority China unicom and China telecom provides the opportunity to shuffle. However, the pattern of tripartite balance of force is the global scope for operators the most advantageous competition.
In view of China unicom and China telecom compared with the Chinese mobile 3G technology advantage, we expect the long term China unicom and China telecom will win more market share. 2015 China mobile, China unicom and telecom market share ratio will 69 percent from 2010, 20%, 11% into 57%, 25%, 18%, by 2020 will be 52 percent, 27%, 21%. |
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2011-04-19 21:50:57 |
Article From Article Mayhem
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