Directed financing challenges RMB loan
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Yesterday, the central bank was first issued social financing scale statistics, this data release, will make the market for Chinese financing conditions no longer simply rely on credit data and stock issuance of different market data on partial figures, but on the whole society to financing market wholly revealed. Judging from the data, released times since 2002, our country social 8 years, although increasingly diversified financing channel RMB loans still occupied, but QiYeZhai barcap jiangshan, bank acceptance, entrust loan and so on the new financing method all had great development.
Social financing 8 years growth six times
The so-called social financing volume, it is to point to a certain period from the financial system entity economy all the amount of capital gain. According to statistics, China's central bank in 2002 for social financing scale only 2 trillion yuan, and 2010 and has reached 14.27 trillion yuan, eight years 613.5%, annualised growth rate as high as 27.8%. 2010 social financing scale and the ratio of GDP in 2002 to improve than 35.9% 19.2 percentage points.
But this time the central bank as the year to the first quarter and new data window data show that quarter of social financing 4.19 trillion yuan social financing increase year-on-year increase, less 3,255 billion yuan. "Social financing" concept, in recent years in macro control is paid more and more attention to the concept. Previous central economic work conference proposed "to maintain a reasonable social financing scale", and premier wen jiabao in the state council fifth plenary meeting deployed this year also stressed that the "first quarter work to maintain a reasonable social financing scale and rhythm". To control for social financing, natural needs corresponding statistics support, this time "social financing scale" data release was undoubtedly solution of financial difficulty.
For direct financing than widening
In a very long period of time, to bank credit financing channel mainly indirect channel in China is the main channel of social financing, also be the main management monitoring economic development index. But as China's financial market development, more and more financing through direct financing such as stocks, bonds finish. Means
In the year to the first quarter as an example, although data on RMB loans accounted for social financing scale for 53.5%, remains, but barcap jiangshan fell 4.1 percentage points year-on-year. And entrust loan accounts for 7.6%, bank acceptance than than 18.2% of enterprise bond than 10.9%, of domestic stock financing, of non-financial enterprises than 3.7%, these kinds of direct financing channels are increasingly become China's economic entity "capital ammunition", among which, the main provider of QiYeZhai and entrust loan developing rapidly, year-on-year in the first quarter is 4.9 percentage points and soar 4.3 percentage points.
That is why the people's bank of China survey statistics ChengSong into points out: new chief already cannot fully reflect the RMB loans in the financial and economic relations, also cannot reflect the economic entity of financing quantity.
Social financing "wind" more accurate
In this concern the CPI, economic data are into ordinary family to buy, the professional news by previous obscure the popular press of concern to become. Of course, for investors, just the latest CPI data weren't enough, need more clues about their future by CPI oriented.
Previously, analysts often can only use new RMB loans as leading indicators to forecast, but people's bank's statistics show that, compared with the new renminbi loans, our country social financing volume with GDP, social total retail sales of consumer goods, urban fixed-asset investment, industrial added value, more closely tied to the CPI, more suitable as "economic barometer".
Judging from the quarter, if only new RMB loan, the attention 2.24 trillion yuan, data increase year-on-year increase less 3524 billion yuan, financing scale seems to be shrinking. But, at the same time, many channels of financing is actually have considerable growth, such as entrust loan increase 3204 billion yuan, up add 1684 billion yuan, the enterprise bond net financing 4551 billion yuan, increasing year-on-year 1874 billion yuan more than; Non-financial enterprises share financing 15.58 million yuan, up add 309 million yuan.
Money supply growth is still on the rise
Yesterday issued in the quarter financial statistics report released except for the new social financing scale the data, also announced the money supply data. Data shows, the late March 2011, generalized currency (M2) balance 75.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.6 percent last month, more than a percentage point, high 0.9 3.1 percentage points lower than ShangNianMo; Narrow currency (M1) balance 26.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth than 15.0%, high late last month than 0.5 percent, ShangNianMo low 6.2 percentage points. Whether from the generalized or special perspective, the money supply growth is still on the rise.
In addition, the foreign currency deposit balance late march, 76.84 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.7%; Foreign currency deposits in the first quarter 4.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase thickening 776 million yuan, more than 30447 foreign-exchange reserves balance for year-on-year, 24.4% $.
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2011-04-17 06:46:56 |
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