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2011 in China's automobile industry trend analysis


Automobile industry has become an important pillar industry in the national economy, although 2011 part preferential policies expire and cancelled due to traffic congestion, individual cities do serious expected part limited, but measures "1025" during countries continue to encourage auto production and sales of macro industrial policy direction will not change, estimated in the future five years - 10 years, automobile consumption demand will remain 10% - 15% stable and rapid development momentum.

In recent years, automobile industry in our country is developing rapidly, and the great-leap-forward growth, general price to maintain stability have fall movements, and private financing as consumption environment improved increasingly and prices fell warm up quickly. Especially in the last two years, automobile market in industrial policy encouraging support production and sales reached new highs, two consecutive years sales ranks first in the world.

According to ZhongQi association up-to-date statistics, by 2010 China auto production both more than 18 million vehicles, respectively 1826.47 million vehicles and 1806.19 million vehicles, year-on-year growth 32.44% and 32.37% respectively, representing the global car production and sales record, once again topped the world's first.

In such a large good market prospect, 2011 under market and how to run, is to remain unconventional sharp increase or slowing leveled off? According to the analysis, the latter possibility will be a few bigger.

On the one hand from the macro face look, 2009 and the rapid growth of the market in 2010 mainly benefits from the state encourages the policy of expanding, growth fast also greatly exceeded expectations. As is known to all, 2008, due to international financial crisis influence, resulting in the automotive industry in external aroundthe environmental degradation, domestic competition, market downturn, a country releasing a series including cancellation road, cars to new MDX, automobile countryside, purchases duty halve the stimulation such as consumer encouraging policies, make domestic market growth of more than 40 percent and two, respectively, and become the world's fastest-growing 30% of the market. We know, a mature market may be associated with moderate overcapacity, through the market competition fully realize muck, should do more to use their own development laws to regulate the market, thereby maintaining market vigor. Relevant policy intervention on the market short-term development be helpful, but to the long-term and sustainable growth does not necessarily beneficial. Therefore, in the macro policies to achieve even more than expected effect of cases, the end of the decade due encouraging policies were again continuance, it is highly unlikely that this is different from previous years recent market appeared cast policy fremantle effect of reason. Year-end distributor not sharply depreciate sales promotion and sales are increasing, once appear queuing buy phenomenon also in this.

2010-2015 China auto manufacturing industry market research and development prospect forecast

According to the current situation and judgement, because short-term spot consumption demand rapid release, how many meeting formed certain overdraw effect. Together with preferential policies of the cancellation will also in a certain extent, and slowing auto demand growth market at present most models capacity, in short supply, 2011 quarter is not very large businessman inventory pressure. Add 2011 market uncertainty and policy of uncertainty will cause manufacturer and distributor of caution, price adjustment will to demand drive will not strong. Therefore, in the first half of the overall judgment 2011 market growth will slow and would not rule out quarter different months shown negative growth. In the second quarter after supply-demand relations and market competition, a new car and other factors, depreciate sales promotion will boost demand gradually release, the second half of growth in the first half of the second half of the year, higher than market sales should be 4.5:5.5 appear even because of possible.

On the other hand from the market operation rule look, over the past decade the domestic market has grown, and continual upgrading. As the car production capital demand is bigger, production cycle is long, lagging reaction to market changes. 2000-2009 market marketing to every two years for a cycle is staged growth. In 2000, 2001 production growth are about 13 percent, In 2002, 2003 production growth respectively with 37%, 39%, 37% 35%, In 2004 and 2005 respectively production growth dropped back to 14%, 13% and 15%, 14%; 2006 and 2007 production rate rose to 27 percent, respectively again 22% and 25%, 22%; 2008 by steel prices to promote, rising cost and international financial crisis to slowing demand and other factors, and insufficient double-digit growth for the first time, respectively 5.21% and fell to 6.7%, 2009 and the 2010 in many policy benefit-oriented marketing stimulating, 2009 respectively with 48 percent growth record 46% of historic highs, 2010 production growth reaches 32% above. In the exclusion of other factors affecting press this rule 2011 market will enter a steady growth in production and sales base expanded constantly, under the situation of market growth in 10% to 15% more likely, also be more rational controllable growth category.

In recent years, automobile industry has become an important pillar industry in the national economy, although 2011 part preferential policies expire and cancelled due to traffic congestion, individual cities do serious expected part limited, but measures "1025" during countries continue to encourage auto production and sales of macro industrial policy direction will not change, estimated in the future five years - 10 years, automobile consumption demand will remain 10% - 15% stable and rapid development momentum.



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