The Oil Prices Keep Rised Maybe Threat Economic Recovery
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Facing the oil price soaring recently market, most economists agree that, despite recent geopolitical tensions in the turmoil international oil prices rapid rise, but the global economy short-term inside still can withstand the impact of high oil prices. However, if prices rapid rise to $120 a barrel above and maintain this level, can pose a threat to global economic recovery.
Short-term still can withstand oil prices soared
The international monetary fund (IMF) first vice President John Mr Lipsky feb 22 say that although the geopolitical tensions in the turmoil international oil prices rapid rise, but the global economy short-term inside still can withstand the impact of rising oil prices. Mr Lipsky said: "the prices are soaring doesn't appear to be on the global economic outlook produce substantial influence." He stressed that the IMF recently expected the global economy in 2011, a major premise is up 4.4%, this year's international crude average $95 a barrel.
The international energy agency (IEA) in the report published in 2011 global oil demand growth prospects, which before the average daily 133 million barrels rise to 1.14 million barrels. The report is expected this year, developed economies will continue its recovery process, and the rapid growth in emerging economies will continue, this is the IEA decided to raise oil demand growth expected main basis.
HSBC 24 in customer report, the Asian economies in the oil price sensitivity no other parts of the world so high. Has lasted a week of crude-oil prices may not give Asian economy needs energy costs much influence, because of the Asian countries many oil delivery contract will continue for more than two months or longer. This means that inflation in the second half of all affect will erupt. But the report, the major risk lies in the export side, because if oil prices are high, the western countries domestic purchasing power declines will increase. In addition, the Philippines and the countries such as India's core inflation rising oil prices also are more sensitive.
Consumer burden will increase
The White House is 23, says that oil prices must be monitored but it won't hinder America's economic recovery.
The White House, chairman of the council of economic advisors nigel than said: "so far, oil is on the rise, but we expect such standard prices won't disturb the pace of economic recovery." But he also admitted: "we will continue to focus on the Middle East and fuel market, soaring fuel prices aren't really conducive to economy."
American economist Dana Johnson said, oil prices further mispricing will allow him really began to worry. The rising prices but not by the increasing demand and up, so the fed is unlikely to this rapid tightening credit. But if the energy and commodity prices began serious influence on to other goods and services, is a different story. America now face the high unemployment, American manufacturing capacity most still in idle, few signs of public or market for inflation expectations, increase. January American consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4 percent, higher than the market compared generally expected to 2010, up 0.3 per cent rise YueHuanBi same. 12 Food and energy become CPI increase the main contribution of factors, YueHuanBi growth respectively for 0.5% and 2.1%.
Analysts believe that if oil prices high and soaring fuel prices will increase American households and businesses burden, obstacles and may weaken the demand of household spending, and further loss and is slowly changed American economic recovery.
Have economists point out that energy prices on economic produce the biggest risk is for American consumers. Each year American consumers were consumed about 140 billion gallons of gasoline, if every gallon of gasoline retail price is "not 30 cents a small number", it will occupy the consumers not small budget, may drag economic recovery. According to deutsche bank estimates, oil prices rose $10 per will lead to the U.S. economy two years less growth by 0.5 percentage points, at present the bank expects the U.S. economy in 2011 growth of 3.8%.
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Submitted
2011-03-01 01:50:12 |
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