China helping hand the global oil and gas
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Be regarded as the current domestic most authoritative oil-gas field research institutions -- China petroleum economic institute of technology, in Beijing recently issued "the 2010 foreign oil and gas industry development report" at home and abroad, with specialized Angle, to describe the oil and gas industry advantage development situation and main characteristics. China petroleum technology research institute President XuYongFa and his Chinese energy experts group thought: China has become a global oil and gas industry development important driving force.
Crude oil demand and manufactured double super 4 million tons
The report laments that, in the past year, world economic recovery, oil and gas industry tortuous restorative growth, demand rapid rebound, supply overall rise, price highs. Meanwhile, China's oil and gas industries continue to remain unconventional development situation, and replace the east, west complement land, sea oil producing great pattern formed basically.
According to statistics, China's oil demand rallies, super double-digit growth again, crude oil demand and manufactured more than four million tons, both output of crude oil first broken 2 million tons, demand for gas first broken 1000 billion cubic meters. China petroleum enterprises quicken overseas layout, mergers &acquisitions scale more than 300 million us dollars, overseas equity oil production more than 6000 tons.
In China's rapid economic growth, pull up last domestic demand, estimated annual bounce 4.55 billion tons, oil apparent consumption year-on-year increase 4,000 tons, year-on-year pace 11.4%. But oil import growth surged, estimated annual net importers of oil arose 2.53 million tons, a year-on-year increase thirty-four million tons, up more than 55% 15.6%, external dependency.
Because the pipeline project progressed and domestic natural gas market scale rapidly expanding. Last year, gas apparent consumption reaches ten-sixty billion cubic meters, up 19.5% growth rate. While imports about 170 billion cubic meters of natural gas, accounting for domestic annual consumption of 16%. According to the calorific value calculation surpassed LPG, has become China's urban gas first big air supply.
Report introduces, last domestic oil &gas pipeline construction of rapid development, the total length of pipe has reached 78,000 kilometers, trunk pipeline initially build, Petroleum reserve construction of rapid advancement, already formed 36 days consumption of reserve capacity; Underground storage gas storage capacity of 187,000m2 billion cubic meters of total load performance improved.
Statistics show that, the western region oil remaining proven reserves rising fast, 2009 oil reserves is 2000 tons of 55.9%, improve 5.58, accounts for the proportion of the first time exceeded 1/4. While remaining proven reserves of natural gas to keep growing steadily, 2000-2009, with an average annual growth rate of 8.2 per cent 2009 surplus 2.1 trillion cubic meters, proven reserves than 2000 growth 1 times above.
Last year, the national energy committee was established, and the state council premier wen jiabao concurrently director, further strengthened the energy industry of government management, and strengthen the energy of important issues coordination leadership. 36 "and" new come on stage, support folk capital into oil and gas exploration and development fields, share construction crude oil, natural gas, oil storage and pipeline facilities and network, to further advance the construction of the market.
This year the overall international oil prices rise still
Years ago, the IMF forecasts 2011 global GDP growth will reach 4.2%, as in developed countries will reach 2.2%, emerging and developing countries growth will reach 6.4%. And this existence instability and uncertainty factors still more judge, make our New Year for oil &gas markets full of mutations.
According to the Chinese petroleum economic institute of technology analysis, 2011 international oil prices go up drop dramatically, it is highly unlikely that year is expected to total will still rising oil prices, fluctuating range in 70 - $100 a barrel, average between 85-90 dollars per barrel. But also don't expel for European debt crisis continues to worsen or expansion, Iran upgrade events, oil prices within short time below $70 per barrel or rush on the possibility of $100 a barrel.
Meanwhile, 2011 world oil demand growth will continue, growth in 120 million barrels per day or so, non-opec supply can only increase 40 million barrels per day or so. And except continue to increase is not included in the scope of outside NGL output effects of restricting output, Opec crude oil will yield is 50 million BPD. At current price level estimation, Opec maintain current production policy probability. Therefore, the world oil demand and supply of the overall balance and gradually tightens, fundamentals support rising oil prices at such a big market pattern under, standing in 1025 "starting year of Chinese oil-gas industry, undoubtedly will face unprecedented development bottleneck and challenges. Industry experts agree, from a global view to examine, China must accelerate the increase an energy industry development mode change and energy structure adjustment.
Transform the development mode of for priority
At present, China petroleum market is contradction between oil supply growth lags behind demand growth, and the main contradiction is oil demand growth too fast, its oil consumption elasticity coefficients reach studied here. Recent should be through technology progress, fuel oil tax accelerate automobile fuel and chemical raw materials, effective alternative slowing gasoline and diesel and chemical light oil demand growth.
China's oil refining processing capacity expansion, remains largely lasted followed the expanding consumer go way, gasoline, diesel, dislocation of the excess tension landscape mode increasing. And in the crude oil processing capacity of continuous improvement under the trend of future products, pay attention to the structural unbalanced supply and demand of problem, against all possible phases structural surplus, reasonable control refining capacity growth and integration of ascension refining concentration, improve industry's international competitive ability.
As the world's second largest oil consumer, China has such a large international trade, but to the international petroleum price formation lack of discourse, remains international petroleum price passive recipients. But to change this situation is improving strategic reserves and commercial reserve level, to build their own oil market statistics, analysis and release system, and actively promote and OPEC, as a representative of the oil-producing countries and to the IEA as a representative of the oil consumers' cooperation, the establishment of interest coordination and cooperation coping mechanism and improve the international petroleum price influence.
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By :
Jessie Stone
Submitted
2011-01-27 17:00:26 |
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